Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 14.204995 16.555289 19.124157 22.133819 25.556374 29.320329 33.765886
2024-10-13 10.431141 13.603969 17.418387 22.311136 28.386363 35.645175 44.934203
2024-10-20 7.997841 11.509147 16.092373 22.439438 30.915441 41.747613 56.524298
2024-10-27 6.356284 9.981068 15.066073 22.588139 33.270841 47.708830 68.463564
2024-11-03 5.593746 9.463806 15.234103 24.251774 37.721536 56.769440 85.322078
2024-11-10 4.866039 8.823283 15.063969 25.315392 41.336738 64.920142 101.594379
2024-11-17 4.252956 8.227580 14.829938 26.181774 44.663894 72.864066 118.170786
2024-11-24 3.560223 7.350304 13.980273 25.902967 46.103077 78.009762 130.893974
2024-12-01 2.898337 6.389876 12.821918 24.913755 46.214328 81.006809 140.428553
2024-12-08 2.392666 5.620972 11.870502 24.124246 46.513674 84.243330 150.489034
2024-12-15 2.088985 5.197343 11.487977 24.291137 48.447451 90.275646 165.496832
2024-12-22 1.791798 4.724992 10.932309 24.044118 49.579241 94.987876 178.574276
2024-12-29 1.662441 4.618153 11.126164 25.329905 53.767074 105.516622 202.708534
2025-01-05 1.470533 4.324646 10.885557 25.717611 56.302783 113.340574 222.760509
2025-01-12 1.292503 4.025624 10.584520 25.937379 58.527570 120.772379 242.662189
2025-01-19 1.138109 3.751779 10.294239 26.135740 60.716315 128.290030 263.233971
2025-01-26 1.100446 3.791271 10.749655 28.040408 66.595182 143.248453 298.598936
2025-02-02 1.026753 3.710317 10.896813 29.254763 71.121898 155.892631 330.378567
2025-02-09 0.948679 3.597873 10.945987 30.241496 75.240833 168.007398 361.881912
2025-02-16 0.823686 3.306145 10.479362 29.925412 76.453725 174.362803 382.559084
2025-02-23 0.686400 2.934320 9.729113 28.801054 75.719516 176.657521 395.315512
2025-03-02 0.577789 2.628176 9.104278 27.903093 75.398524 179.755610 409.837682
2025-03-09 0.516672 2.477561 8.904665 28.093013 77.657276 188.473548 436.362131